Abstract
BACKGROUND: Substantial inequalities in the overall prevalence and patterns of multimorbidity have been widely reported, but the causal mechanisms are complex and not well understood. This study aimed to identify common patterns of multimorbidity in Serbia and assess their relationship with air pollutant concentrations and water quality indicators. METHODS: This ecological study was conducted on a nationally representative sample of the Serbian population. Data were obtained from the European Health Interview (EHIS) Survey, a periodic study designed to assess population health using widely recognized standardized instruments. The study included 13,069 participants aged 15 and older, randomly selected through a multistage stratified sampling design. Multimorbidity was defined as having two or more self-reported diagnoses of chronic non-communicable diseases. Latent class analysis (LCA) was performed to identify clusters of multimorbidity. Concentrations of particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O3), as well as water quality indicators, were obtained from the Serbian Environmental Protection Agency. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of multimorbidity was 33.4% [32.6%-34.2%]. Six latent classes of multimorbidity were identified: Healthy, Multicondition, Cardiovascular, Metabolic syndrome, Respiratory, and Musculoskeletal. Annual increases in PM10 and SO2 concentrations, as well as daily increases in O3 concentrations, significantly raised the odds of having multimorbidity (OR = 1.02, 95% CI 1.02-1.03; OR = 1.01, 95% CI 1.00-1.02 and OR = 1.03, 95% CI 1.02-1.03, respectively). A pattern of increased risk was observed with rising levels of water contamination. Exposure to physico-chemical, microbiological and combined contamination was associated with a 3.92%, 5.17% and 5.54% higher probability, respectively, of having multiple chronic conditions. There was strong evidence that air pollutants, as well as chemical and microbial water contamination, were significantly associated with higher odds of the most common clusters of multimorbidity identified by LCA. CONCLUSION: There is compelling evidence of an association between multimorbidity and environmental pollution, suggesting that exposure to air pollutants and water contaminants may contribute to disease accumulation and help explain geographically and socioeconomically patterned inequalities. These findings underscore the need for extensive studies that simultaneously measure both multimorbidity and pollution to explore their complex interrelationships.