Abstract
We have demonstrated that machine learning allows us to predict cognitive function in aged people using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) data or basic blood test data. However, the following points are not yet clear: first, whether there are differences in prediction accuracy between NIRS and blood test data; second, whether there are differences in prediction accuracy for cognitive function in linear models and non-linear models; and third, whether there are changes in prediction accuracy when both NIRS and blood test data are added to the input layer. We used a linear regression model (LR) for the linear model and random forest (RF) and deep neural network (DNN) for the non-linear model. We studied 250 participants (mean age = 73.3 ± 12.6 years) and assessed cognitive function using the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) (mean MMSE scores = 22.9 ± 6.1). We used time-resolved NIRS (TNIRS) to measure absolute concentrations of hemoglobin and optical pathlength at rest in the bilateral prefrontal cortices. A basic blood test was performed on the same day. We compared predicted MMSE scores and grand truth MMSE scores; prediction accuracies were evaluated using mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). We found that (1) the DNN-based prediction using TNIRS data exhibited lower MAE and MAPE compared with those using blood test data, (2) the difference in MAPE between TNIRS and blood test data was only 0.3%, (3) adding TNIRS data to the blood test data of the input layer only improved MAPE by 1.0% compared to the use of blood test data alone, whereas the use of the blood test data alone exhibited the prediction accuracy with 81.8% sensitivity and 91.3% specificity (N = 202, repeated five-fold cross validation). Given these findings and the benefits of using blood test data (low cost and large-scale screening possible), we concluded that the DNN model using blood test data is still the most suitable for mass screening.