Abstract
The circadian clock is an endogenous and self-sustained oscillator that anticipates daily environmental cycles. While rhythmic gene expression of circadian genes is well-described in populations of cells, the single-cell mRNA dynamics of multiple core clock genes remain largely unknown. Here we use single-molecule fluorescence in situ hybridisation (smFISH) at multiple time points to measure pairs of core clock transcripts, Rev-erbα (Nr1d1), Cry1 and Bmal1, in mouse fibroblasts. The mean mRNA level oscillates over 24 h for all three genes, but mRNA numbers show considerable spread between cells. We develop a probabilistic model for multivariate mRNA counts using mixtures of negative binomials, which accounts for transcriptional bursting, circadian time and cell-to-cell heterogeneity, notably in cell size. Decomposing the mRNA variability into distinct noise sources shows that clock time contributes a small fraction of the total variability in mRNA number between cells. Thus, our results highlight the intrinsic biological challenges in estimating circadian phase from single-cell mRNA counts and suggest that circadian phase in single cells is encoded post-transcriptionally.