Abstract
Botrytis cinerea Pers. Fr. is capable of infecting many horticultural plants and agricultural products with gray mold, which causes great losses to the world economy. MaxEnt is a probabilistic model for classification and prediction. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the current and future potential geographic distribution of B. cinerea in China, and key environmental variables affecting its distribution were identified. The results showed that under the current climatic conditions, the central area of suitable distribution of B. cinerea is in Gande County, Guoluo Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, Qinghai Province, China (99.63° E, 33.92° N). The highly suitable areas are mainly concentrated in tropical and subtropical regions, including Tianjin, Shandong, Anhui, Hubei, and Henan in China. Under the future climate conditions, the center of the suitable distribution of B. cinerea did not shift significantly. The areas of both the high and low suitable areas of B. cinerea decreased, but the areas of the medium suitable areas increased. Key environmental variables affecting the distribution of B. cinerea included isothermality (bio3), mean temperature of wettest quarter (bio8), mean temperature of driest quarter (bio9), precipitation seasonality (bio15), precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19), and elevation. This study has the potential to be utilized to understand the changing patterns of B. cinerea distribution and to promote ecological conservation and agricultural management.