Abstract
Aspergillus fungi are key producers of pharmaceuticals, enzymes, and food products and exhibit diverse lifestyles, ranging from saprophytes to opportunistic pathogens. To improve understanding of Aspergillus species diversity, identify key environmental factors influencing their geographic distributions, and estimate the impact of future climate change, we trained a random forest machine learning classifier on 30,542 terrestrial occurrence records for 176 species (~40% of known species in the genus) and 96 environmental variables. We found that regions with high species diversity are concentrated in temperate forests, which suggests that areas with mild seasonal variation may serve as diversity hotspots. Species range estimates revealed extensive variability, both within and across taxonomic sections; while some species are cosmopolitan, others have more restricted ranges. Furthermore, range overlap between species is generally low. The top predictors of mean species richness were the index of cumulative human impact and five bioclimatic factors, such as temperature and temperate vs non-temperate ecoregions. Our future climate analyses revealed considerable variation in species range estimates in response to changing climates; some species ranges are predicted to expand (e.g., the food spoilage and mycotoxin-producing Aspergillus versicolor), and others are predicted to contract or remain stable. Notably, the predicted range of the major pathogen Aspergillus fumigatus was predicted to decrease in response to climate change, whereas the range of the major pathogen Aspergillus flavus was predicted to increase and gradually decrease. Our findings reveal how both natural and human factors influence Aspergillus species ranges and highlight their ecological diversity, including the diversity of their responses to changing climates, which is of relevance to pathogen and mycotoxin risk assessment.