Hybrid Deep Learning for Survival Prediction in Brain Metastases Using Multimodal MRI and Clinical Data

基于多模态MRI和临床数据的混合深度学习脑转移瘤生存预测

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Abstract

Background: Survival prediction in patients with brain metastases remains a major clinical challenge, where timely and individualized prognostic estimates are critical for guiding treatment strategies and patient counseling. Methods: We propose a novel hybrid deep learning framework that integrates volumetric MRI-derived imaging biomarkers with structured clinical and demographic data to predict overall survival time. Our dataset includes 148 patients from three institutions, featuring expert-annotated segmentations of enhancing tumors, necrosis, and peritumoral edema. Two convolutional neural network backbones-ResNet-50 and EfficientNet-B0-were fused with fully connected layers processing tabular data. Models were trained using mean squared error loss and evaluated through stratified cross-validation and an independent held-out test set. Results: The hybrid model based on EfficientNet-B0 achieved state-of-the-art performance, attaining an R(2) score of 0.970 and a mean absolute error of 3.05 days on the test set. Permutation feature importance highlighted edema-to-tumor ratio and enhancing tumor volume as the most informative predictors. Grad-CAM visualizations confirmed the model's attention to anatomically and clinically relevant regions. Performance consistency across validation folds confirmed the framework's robustness and generalizability. Conclusions: This study demonstrates that multimodal deep learning can deliver accurate, explainable, and clinically actionable survival predictions in brain metastases. The proposed framework offers a promising foundation for integration into real-world oncology workflows to support personalized prognosis and informed therapeutic decision-making.

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