Abstract
BACKGROUND: Accurate and timely prediction of mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, particularly those with COVID-19, remains clinically challenging due to complex immune responses. Proteomic cytokine profiling holds promise for refining mortality risk assessment. METHODS: Serum samples from 89 ICU patients (55 discharged, 34 deceased) were analyzed using a multiplex 21-cytokine panel. Samples were stratified into three groups based on time from collection to outcome: ≤48 h (Group 1: Early), >48 h to ≤7 days (Group 2: Intermediate), and >7 days to ≤14 days (Group 3: Late). Cytokine levels, simple cytokine ratios, and previously unexplored complex ratios between pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines were evaluated. Machine learning-based feature selection identified the most predictive ratios, with performance evaluated by area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity. RESULTS: Complex cytokine ratios demonstrated superior predictive accuracy compared to traditional severity markers (APACHE II, SAPS II, SOFA), individual cytokines, and simple ratios, effectively distinguishing discharged from deceased patients across all groups (AUC: 0.918-1.000; sensitivity: 0.826-1.000; specificity: 0.775-0.900). CONCLUSIONS: Multiplex cytokine profiling enhanced by computationally derived complex ratios may offer robust predictive capabilities for ICU mortality risk stratification, serving as a valuable tool for personalized prognosis in critical care.