Modelling, analysis and optimal control of Zika virus transmission dynamics based on sterile insect technique

基于不育昆虫技术的寨卡病毒传播动力学建模、分析和最优控制

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Abstract

The sterile insect technique (SIT) has emerged as a promising tool for suppressing mosquito-borne diseases. This study develops a Zika virus transmission model integrating SIT, emphasizing both mosquito-borne and environmental aquatic transmission pathways. Unlike eradication-focused approaches, the model targets population suppression through sterile male releases, allowing controlled coexistence of sterile and wild mosquitoes. Dynamical analysis reveals critical thresholds: when the sterile insect release rate b < b (p) and Allee effects are weak (r < r (p) ), the system stabilizes at a coexistence equilibrium; exceeding these thresholds drives population collapse. While low wild mosquito densities may theoretically risk extinction, such levels are epidemiologically insufficient to trigger outbreaks, as viral resurgence requires a critical population density. The basic reproduction number R (0) was derived under coexistence conditions, demonstrating that R (0) > 1 ensures viral persistence. Additionally, a multi-objective optimal control framework prioritizes cost minimization over infection reduction, offering resource-efficient strategies. Environmental transmission, a hallmark of Zika virus, accelerates early infection spread but is effectively mitigated by SIT. These results establish actionable thresholds (b (p) , r (p) ) for balancing mosquito suppression and disease control, while providing theoretical insights applicable to dengue, malaria, and other arboviral diseases.

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