Abstract
Climate change is thought to be responsible for the spread of various vector-borne diseases. The current study was conducted to evaluate the impact of different temperature and relative humidity regimes on the developmental stages of the yellow fever mosquito, Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). The study also evaluated the impact of larval density on the survival of Ae. aegypti. In addition, the association between vector larval abundance, dengue incidence, and climatic factors were elucidated during 2016-2019 in three populated districts of Punjab, Pakistan, i.e., Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Multan. The results of the study revealed that at 10 °C and 35 °C, egg hatching and adult emergence were significantly reduced, regardless of the relative humidity. In contrast, at 20 °C and 30 °C, the rates of egg and adult survival increased with higher relative humidity. In addition, a density-dependent response was observed regarding larval survival of Ae. aegypti. Moreover, larval incidence was positively correlated with the number of dengue patients, Tmax, RH, and precipitation at Lahore (0.55, 0.23, 0.29, and 0.13), Rawalpindi (0.90, 0.30, 0.21, and 0.14), and Multan (0.05, 0.27, and 0.13) respectively, except in Multan, where a negative correlation (-0.09) with precipitation was observed. The inflow of patients had a positive correlation with the occurrence of a larval population, relative humidity, and precipitation at Lahore, Rawalpindi, and Multan districts, with the scale values of 0.55, 0.25, and 0.16; 0.90, 0.22, and 0.03; and 0.05, 0.06, and 0.03, respectively. In addition, a forecast model, ARIMA, predicted that there was a higher rate of larval occurrence in Rawalpindi, followed by Lahore. This study concluded that the role of precipitation > 200 mm prior to a 1-2-month lag, a 20-30 °C temperature range, and an RH exceeding 60% lead to the occurrence of larvae and dengue case spikes. This study will help to reinforce dengue surveillance and control strategies in Pakistan and to establish early management strategies based on changing climatic factors.