Abstract
Climate change will impact coastal ecosystems, threatening subsistence fisheries including those in mangrove forests. Despite their global contributions and roles in nutrition and cultural identity, mangrove subsistence fisheries are poorly studied. Here, we offer a foundation for improving the management of mangrove subsistence fisheries to deal with the impending effects of climate change. This multidisciplinary review-drawing on organismal biology, ecology, fisheries, and social science-focuses on the climate impacts relevant to mangrove ecosystems: heat waves, low-category, and high-category typhoons. First, we provide an overview of the mangroves, their harvestable stocks (fish, crustaceans, molluscs), and the fishers, offering an understanding of how they may be affected by relevant environmental variables; i.e., shifts in temperature, salinity, oxygen, flooding, and sediments. Then, we examine the potential effects of climate change on mangrove stocks and fishers, indicating the scope of impending changes. By combining the above information, we develop a simple model that forecasts the number of "fishing-days" lost by fishers due to climate change over the next decade (between 11 and 21 days will be lost per year per fisher). This indicates which aspects of climate change will have the greatest impacts on stocks and fishers. We found that high-category typhoons had more impacts than heat waves, which in turn had a greater impact than low-category typhoons). Finally, recognising gaps in our knowledge and understanding, we offer recommendations for approaches for future work to improve our predictions. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42995-024-00231-3.