Abstract
Urban agglomeration system resilience involves multiple subsystems that are interconnected and interactive, and exploring the relationships among subsystems can elucidate and increase urban agglomeration resilience. This study constructed a social-economic-built environment resilience model and proposed a social-economic-built environment resilience index system. Using the entropy weight method, the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model, GeoDetector, spatial autocorrelation analysis and the autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) model, the resilience development level of the Beijing‒Tianjin‒Hebei (BTH) region from 2000 to 2020 was evaluated, the main influencing factors for the spatiotemporal differentiation pattern were identified, and the development levels in 2030 and 2050 were predicted. The results show that (1) high-resilience and high-CCD regions are concentrated in the region of Beijing and Tianjin in the centre, and low-value regions are concentrated in the districts and counties in the west and south; (2) economic elements, especially the economic aggregate status of a region as a whole, are the main factors contributing to the differences in resilience levels between regions, but their influence gradually decreases; and (3) the gap between the CCDs of Beijing, Tianjin and cities in Hebei increased from 2000 to 2020, but this gap is expected to narrow by 2030 and 2050. On this basis, five categories of future development guidelines for cities in the BTH region are proposed.