Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Assessing the risk of postoperative recurrence of chronic subdural hematoma (CSDH) is a clinical focus. To screen the main factors associated with the perioperative hematoma recurrence. The brain re-expansion is the core factor of recurrence. A clinical prognostic scoring system was also proposed. METHODS: We included 295 patients with unilateral CSDH as the training group for modeling. Factors predicting postoperative recurrence requiring reoperation (RrR) were determined using univariate and multivariate regression analyses, and bivariate Pearson correlation coefficient analysis was used to exclude related factors. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis evaluates the ability of main factors to predict RrR and determines the cut-off value of brain re-expansion rate. We developed a prognostic scoring system and conducted preliminary verification. A verification group including 119 patients with unilateral CSDH was used to verify the grading systems. RESULTS: The key factors for predicting unilateral CSDH recurrence were cerebral re-expansion rate (≤ 40%) at postoperative days 7-9 (OR 25.91, p < 0.001) and the preoperative CT density classification (isodense or hyperdense, or separated or laminar types) (OR 8.19, p = 0.007). Cerebral atrophy played a key role in brain re-expansion (OR 2.36, p = 0.002). The CSDH prognostic grading system ranged from 0 to 3. An increased score was associated with a more accurate progressive increase in the RrR rate (AUC = 0.856). CONCLUSIONS: Our prognostic grading system could screen clinically high-risk RrR patients with unilateral CSDH. However, increased attention should be paid to brain re-expansion rate after surgery in patients with CSDH.