Abstract
PURPOSE: To explore the disease burden of early-onset colorectal cancer (EO-CRC) in individuals aged 40-49 years and provide baseline evidence for routine recommended age adjustment for CRC screening and other clinical decision-making. METHODS: We collected data stratified by sex, risk factors, and socio-demographic index (SDI) from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 Data Resources. Trends in disease burden were analyzed by estimated annual percentage change. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted the burden over the following 10 years. RESULTS: In 2019, the global rates of incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) of EO-CRC in people aged 40-44 years were 11.48 (95% uncertainty interval: 10.50-12.59), 4.35 (4.01-4.70), 72.63 (66.48-79.52), 209.82 (193.55-226.59) per 100,000 population. For people aged 45-49 years, the rates of these four estimates were 19.63 (17.97-21.54), 7.76 (7.16-8.41), 121.73 (110.99-133.84), and 335.83 (310.14-362.91), respectively. The incidence and prevalence rates for both age groups increased while the mortality and DALY rates remained stable from 1990 to 2019. In 2019, high-income North America had the highest incidence and prevalence rates. A low milk diet accounted for the largest proportion of global DALYs in EO-CRC, and there was a tendency for the DALY rate first to increase and then decrease with increasing SDI. The incidence and mortality rates were predicted to increase in the next 10 years. CONCLUSION: The current and future burden of EO-CRC among people aged 40-49 years is heavy. Substantial variation exists in disease burden across regions and countries. Urgent screening actions and policies are needed.