Abstract
BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular (CV) risk estimation calculators for the general population underperform in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). The purpose of this study was to identify relevant protein biomarkers that could be added to traditional CV risk calculators to improve the capacity of coronary artery calcification (CAC) prediction in individuals with RA. In a second step, we quantify the improvement of this prediction of CAC when these circulating biomarkers are added to standard risk scores. METHODS: A panel of 141 serum and plasma proteins, which represent a broad base of both CV and RA biology, were evaluated and prioritized as candidate biomarkers. Of these, 39 proteins were selected and measured by commercial ELISA or quantitative mass spectroscopy in 561 individuals with RA in whom a measure of CAC and frozen sera were available. The patients were randomly split 50:50 into a training/validation cohort. Discrimination (using area under the receiver operator characteristic curves) and re-classification (through net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement calculation) analyses were performed first in the training cohort and replicated in the validation cohort, to estimate the increase in prediction accuracy for CAC using the ACA/AHA (American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association) score with, compared to without, addition of these circulating biomarkers. RESULTS: The model containing ACC/AHA score plus cytokines (osteopontin, cartilage glycoprotein-39, cystatin C, and chemokine (C-C motif) ligand 18) and plus quantitative mass spectroscopy biomarkers (serpin D1, paraoxonase, and clusterin) had a statistically significant positive net reclassifications index and integrated discrimination improvement for the prediction of CAC, using ACC/AHA score without any biomarkers as the reference category. These results were confirmed in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: In this exploratory analysis, the addition of several circulating CV and RA biomarkers to a standard CV risk calculator yielded significant improvements in discrimination and reclassification for the presence of CAC in individuals with RA.