Abstract
BACKGROUND: Translating prognostic and diagnostic biomarker candidates into clinical applications takes time, is very costly, and many candidates fail. It is therefore crucial to be able to select those biomarker candidates that have the highest chance of successfully being adopted in the clinic. This requires an early estimate of the potential clinical impact and commercial value. In this paper, we aim to demonstratively evaluate a set of novel biomarkers in terms of clinical impact and commercial value, using occurrence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type-2 diabetes (DM2) patients as a case study. METHODS: We defined a clinical application for the novel biomarkers, and subsequently used data from a large cohort study in The Netherlands in a modeling exercise to assess the potential clinical impact and headroom for the biomarkers. RESULTS: The most likely application of the biomarkers would be to identify DM2 patients with a low CVD risk and subsequently withhold statin treatment. As a result, one additional CVD event in every 75 patients may be expected. The expected downstream savings resulted in a headroom for a point-of-care device ranging from €119.09 at a willingness to accept of €0 for one additional CVD event, to €0 at a willingness to accept of €15,614 or more. CONCLUSION: It is feasible to evaluate novel biomarkers on outcomes directly relevant to technological development and clinical adoption. Importantly, this may be attained at the same point in time and using the same data as used for the evaluation of association with disease and predictive power.