Abstract
BACKGROUND: Atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) frequently coexist. Catheter ablation (CA) of AF is increasingly used in patients with AF and HF. However, prediction of improvement of HF after CA is challenging. AIM: We aimed to evaluate the value of biomarkers, alone and in conjunction with a clinical tool (Antwerp score) to predict left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) recovery after CA in patients with AF and HF. METHODS: Patients undergoing CA for AF with depressed LVEF (<50%) were included. Plasma levels of 13 biomarkers were measured immediately prior to CA. Patients were categorized into "responders" (LVEF normalisation after CA in case of HFmrEF and at least 10% LVEF improvement and LVEF > 40% at follow-up in case of HFrEF) and "non-responders" (no LVEF recovery after CA). Models were constructed by comparing the plasma levels of the various biomarkers in responders and non-responders and by adjusting for age, sex, and Antwerp score and subsequent biomarkers were then combined according based on likelihood-ratios. The predictive power of the biomarkers alone and combined in outcome prediction, as well as improvement of the Antwerp score was then evaluated. RESULTS: Out of 1665 patients undergoing CA of AF, we included 208 patients with depressed LVEF (median age 63 years, 19% female, median LAVI 42 ml/m2, median LVEF 43%). The median follow-up time was 30 months [IQR 20-34] and the median time to LVEF recovery was 8 months [IQR 3-22]. Of these, 161 (77%) were responders and 47 (23%) were non-responders. Out of 13 biomarkers, four biomarkers (ANG2, GDF15, FGF23 and MyBPC3) were significantly different between responders and non-responders (p ≤0.001). A biomarker panel using these four biomarkers could predict LVEF recovery after CA for AF with an AUC of 0.72 (95%CI 0.64-0.81) overall, 0.69 (95%CI 0.59-0.78) in HFmrEF and 0.88 (95%CI 0.77-0.98) in HFrEF (Figure, A). Only ANG2 and GDF15 remained significantly associated with LVEF recovery after adjustment for age, sex, and the Antwerp score. The AUC of the Antwerp score for prediction of LVEF recovery improved from 0.75 (95% CI 0.67-0.83, Figure, B) to 0.78 (95% CI 0.70-0.86, Figure, C) in the overall population, from 0.71 (95% CI 0.61-0.81) to 0.74 (95% CI 0.64-0.84) in case of HFmrEF and from 0.87 (95% CI 0.78-0.97) to 0.92 (95% CI 0.85-0.99) in case of HFrEF when ANG2 and GDF15 were included in the model. CONCLUSION: A biomarker panel using ANG2, GDF15, FGF23 and MyBPC3 performs similarly for prediction of LVEF recovery after CA in AF compared to the Antwerp score. The biomarkers ANG2 and GDF15 slightly improve the predictive value of the Antwerp score. [Figure: see text]