Abstract
We aimed to identify serum biomarkers that predict knee osteoarthritis (OA) before the appearance of radiographic abnormalities in a cohort of 200 women. As few as six serum peptides, corresponding to six proteins, reached AUC 77% probability to distinguish those who developed OA from age-matched individuals who did not develop OA up to 8 years later. Prediction based on these blood biomarkers was superior to traditional prediction based on age and BMI (AUC 51%) or knee pain (AUC 57%). These results identify a prolonged molecular derangement of joint tissue before the onset of radiographic OA abnormalities consistent with an unresolved acute phase response. Among all 24 protein biomarkers predicting incident knee OA, the majority (58%) also predicted knee OA progression, revealing the existence of a pathophysiological "OA continuum" based on considerable similarity in the molecular pathophysiology of the progression to incident OA and the progression of established OA.