Abstract
We evaluated the performance of CSF biomarkers for predicting risk of clinical decline and conversion to dementia in non-demented patients with cognitive symptoms. CSF samples from patients in two multicentre longitudinal studies (ADNI, n = 619; BioFINDER, n = 431) were analysed. Aβ(1-42), tTau and pTau CSF concentrations were measured using Elecsys CSF immunoassays, and tTau/Aβ(1-42) and pTau/Aβ(1-42) ratios calculated. Patients were classified as biomarker (BM)-positive or BM-negative at baseline. Ability of biomarkers to predict risk of clinical decline and conversion to AD/dementia was assessed using pre-established cut-offs for Aβ(1-42) and ratios; tTau and pTau cut-offs were determined. BM-positive patients showed greater clinical decline than BM-negative patients, demonstrated by greater decreases in MMSE scores (all biomarkers: -2.10 to -0.70). Risk of conversion to AD/dementia was higher in BM-positive patients (HR: 1.67 to 11.48). Performance of Tau/Aβ(1-42) ratios was superior to single biomarkers, and consistent even when using cut-offs derived in a different cohort. Optimal pTau and tTau cut-offs were approximately 27 pg/mL and 300 pg/mL in both BioFINDER and ADNI. Elecsys pTau/Aβ(1-42) and tTau/Aβ(1-42) are robust biomarkers for predicting risk of clinical decline and conversion to dementia in non-demented patients, and may support AD diagnosis in clinical practice.