Abstract
Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis is a major commercial species in the high-seas fisheries of the northwestern Indian Ocean. However, its spatiotemporal distribution exhibits strong uncertainty under climate and environmental variability, complicating the understanding of fishing ground dynamics. To investigate the spatiotemporal distribution of S. oualaniensis under climate change, this study analyzed commercial fishing data from 2016 to 2024. The results indicate that the core distribution area of the species is consistently concentrated within 14-19° N and 61-65° E. From 2016 to 2024, the fishing ground expanded annually and shifted overall toward the east and north, with its centroid showing a persistent northeastward trajectory. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed positive and significant Moran's I values for all years, demonstrating a strong spatial clustering pattern. Hotspot analysis shows that high-abundance areas were primarily located north of 14° N, with an overall northeastward migration trend. Hotspots expanded continuously from 2016 to 2023, but sharply contracted in 2024, shifting further northeast and becoming restricted to 63-68° E and 19-21° N. The GAM results indicate that CPUE in the region is jointly influenced by spatiotemporal drivers and multiple environmental factors. These findings confirm that the spatiotemporal distribution and population dynamics of S. oualaniensis are shaped by the combined effects of environmental variability and temporal-spatial factors, with environmental influences playing a particularly crucial role.