Abstract
Optimism, a bias to overestimate positive and underestimate negative outcomes, may shape how children learn, confront challenges, and overcome setbacks. Although approximately 80% of adults are optimistic, childhood optimism is understudied. A racially and socioeconomically diverse community sample of 152 three- to six-year-old children participated in two experiments (one story-based, one numeric probability-based) that assessed expectations of event outcomes when the likelihood of the outcome occurring either matched or conflicted with the most desirable outcome. The results systematically demonstrate that children are optimistic, even more optimistic for themselves than others, and increasingly integrate probabilistic information into their predictions with age. Differences in optimism were found in children from different socioeconomic backgrounds and those with different levels of depressive symptoms. These findings provide insight into how children reason about the future and elucidate key factors that impact optimistic predictions in childhood.