Abstract
BACKGROUND: Students who fail to pass the National Medical Licensure Examination (NMLE) pose a huge problem from the educational standpoint of healthcare professionals. In the present study, we developed a formula of predictive pass rate (PPR)" which reliably predicts medical students who will fail the NMLE in Japan, and provides an adequate academic support for them. METHODS: Six consecutive cohorts of 531 medical students between 2012 and 2017, Gifu University Graduate School of Medicine, were investigated. Using 7 variables before the admission to medical school and 10 variables after admission, we developed a prediction formula to obtain the PPR for the NMLE using logistic regression analysis. In a new cohort of 106 medical students in 2018, we applied the formula for PPR to them to confirm the capability of the PPR and predicted students who will have a strong likelihood of failing the NMLE. RESULTS: Medical students who passed the NMLE had the following characteristics: younger age at admission, graduates of high schools located in the surrounding area, high scores in the graduation examination and in the comprehensive computer-based test provided by the Common Achievement Test Organization in Japan. However, total score of examination in pre-clinical medical sciences and Pre-CC OSCE score in the 4th year were not correlated with the PPR. Ninety-one out of 531 students had a strong likelihood of failing the NMLE between 2012 and 2017 and 33 of these 91 students failed NMLE. Using the PPR, we predicted 12 out of 106 students will have a strong likelihood of failing the NMLE. Actually, five of these 12 students failed NMLE. CONCLUSIONS: The PPR can be used to predict medical students who have a higher probability of failing the NMLE. This prediction would enable focused support and guidance by faculty members. Prospective and longitudinal studies for larger and different cohorts would be necessary.