Abstract
BACKGROUND: Type 2 diabetes, common and serious global health concern, had an estimated worldwide prevalence of 366 million in 2011, which is expected to rise to 552 million people, by 2030, unless urgent action is taken. OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to identify risk patterns for type 2 diabetes incidence using association rule mining (ARM). PATIENTS AND METHODS: A population of 6647 individuals without diabetes, aged ≥ 20 years at inclusion, was followed for 10-12 years, to analyze risk patterns for diabetes occurrence. Study variables included demographic and anthropometric characteristics, smoking status, medical and drug history and laboratory measures. RESULTS: In the case of women, the results showed that impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), in combination with body mass index (BMI) ≥ 30 kg/m(2), family history of diabetes, wrist circumference > 16.5 cm and waist to height ≥ 0.5 can increase the risk for developing diabetes. For men, a combination of IGT, IFG, length of stay in the city (> 40 years), central obesity, total cholesterol to high density lipoprotein ratio ≥ 5.3, low physical activity, chronic kidney disease and wrist circumference > 18.5 cm were identified as risk patterns for diabetes occurrence. CONCLUSIONS: Our study showed that ARM is a useful approach in determining which combinations of variables or predictors occur together frequently, in people who will develop diabetes. The ARM focuses on joint exposure to different combinations of risk factors, and not the predictors alone.