Systematic analysis and comparison of the burden of cardiovascular diseases in China from 1990 to 2021 and its 15-year prediction with global levels

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Systematic assessment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors is crucial for prevention. We used GBD 2021 data to examine long-term trends and epidemiological features of CVDs in China and globally. METHODS AND RESULTS: CVD prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs were analyzed using joinpoint regression, age-period-cohort models, decomposition, ARIMA, and BAPC. From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized mortality and DALY rates declined, but prevalence and case numbers increased, with males bearing a higher burden. CONCLUSION: Rapid population aging sustains high CVD burden, highlighting the urgent need for targeted prevention and management strategies.