Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Mixed findings have been reported about the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on smoking behavior in different populations. AIMS AND METHODS: In this study, we aimed to quantify changes in smoking prevalence through the proxy of nicotine consumption in the Australian population from 2017 to 2020 inclusive. Estimates of nicotine consumption between 2017 and 2020 were retrieved from a national wastewater monitoring program that covers up to 50% of the Australian population. National sales data for nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) products from 2017 to 2020 were also acquired. Linear regression and pairwise comparison were conducted to identify data trends and to test differences between time periods. RESULTS: The average consumption of nicotine in Australia decreased between 2017 and 2019 but increased in 2020. Estimated consumption in the first half of 2020 was significantly higher (~30%) than the previous period. Sales of NRT products increased gradually from 2017 to 2020 although sales in the first half of the year were consistently lower than in the second half. CONCLUSION: Total nicotine consumption increased in Australia during the early stage of the pandemic in 2020. Increased nicotine consumption may be due to people managing higher stress levels, such as from loneliness due to control measures, and also greater opportunities to smoke/vape while working from home and during lockdowns in the early stage of the pandemic. IMPLICATIONS: Tobacco and nicotine consumption have been decreasing in Australia but the COVID-19 pandemic may have temporarily disrupted this trend. In 2020, the higher impacts of lockdowns and working from home arrangements may have led to a temporary reversal of the previous downward trend in smoking during the early stage of the pandemic.