Abstract
BACKGROUND: Converging data have suggested that monocytic inflammation and C-reactive protein (CRP) are biologically intertwined processes and are involved in diabetogenesis. This study aimed to investigate the association between systemic inflammation assessed by joint cumulative high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (CumCRP) and monocyte to high-density lipoprotein ratio (CumMHR) and incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) and their predictive value for T2D in a general population. METHODS: A total of 40,813 nondiabetic participants from a prospective real-life cohort (Kailuan Study, China) were followed biennially from 2010/2011 until December 31, 2020. Multivariable Cox regression analyses were conducted to evaluate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of incident diabetes. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 7.98 (IQR: 5.74-8.87) years, 4848 T2D cases developed. CumMHR and CumCRP were alone or jointly associated with incident T2D after adjusting for potential confounders. Elevated CumMHR levels significantly increased the risk of incident diabetes in each CumCRP strata (P-interaction: 0.0278). Participants with concomitant elevations in CumMHR and CumCRP levels had the highest risk (aHR: 1.71, 95% CI 1.52-1.91) compared to both in the low strata. Notably, the coexposure-associated T2D risk was modified by age, sex, hypertension, dyslipidemia, and prediabetes status. C-statistics increased from 0.7377 to 0.7417 when CumMHR and CumCRP were added into the multivariable-adjusted model, with a net reclassification improvement (%) of 12.39 (9.39-15.37) (P < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Cumulative hsCRP and MHR were both independently and jointly associated with an increased risk of T2D and their addition to established risk factors should improve risk prediction and reclassification of diabetes.