Abstract
OBJECTIVES: We aimed to estimate the current and future lifetime risks (LTR) of herpes zoster (HZ) and postherpetic neuralgia (PHN), as well as their respective number of annual incident cases in Beijing, China, if individuals were not vaccinated against HZ. STUDY DESIGN: Mathematical model built in Microsoft Excel, de novo. METHODS: A hypothetical cohort of 1,000 people was simulated from age 0-100 or until death to generate LTRs of HZ/PHN in Beijing, China. LTR was defined as the risk of developing HZ/PHN at least once in the person's lifetime. The current number of annual incident HZ/PHN cases were also calculated by multiplying up-to-date population data and the annual age-specific incidence of HZ/PHN. For both LTR and annual incident cases, current estimates were projected into the year 2035 to investigate the impact of an aging population. Scenario and deterministic sensitivity analyses (DSA) were conducted to validate the model outcomes. RESULTS: In Beijing, the current and future LTRs of HZ (PHN) were 32.4% (2.8%) and 34.8% (3.3%), respectively. The current and future annual incident cases of HZ (PHN) of individuals aged ≥50 years were 68,394 (7,801) cases among 7.04 million individuals and 88,676 (9,649) cases among 9.08 million individuals, respectively. The scenario analyses demonstrated that modelled results were likely to underestimate the LTR of HZ. Results were robust under the DSA. CONCLUSIONS: Given an aging population, HZ poses a significant, growing burden on individuals, the society, and healthcare system of China, highlighting the need for preventative measures such as vaccination.