Abstract
BACKGROUND: As the global climate changes in response to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, weather and temperature are expected to become increasingly variable. Although heat sensitivity is a recognized clinical feature of multiple sclerosis (MS), a chronic demyelinating disorder of the central nervous system, few studies have examined the implications of climate change for patients with this disease. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of individuals with MS ages 18-64 years in a nationwide United States patient-level commercial and Medicare Advantage claims database from 2003 to 2017. We defined anomalously warm weather as any month in which local average temperatures exceeded the long-term average by ≥1.5°C. We estimated the association between anomalously warm weather and MS-related inpatient, outpatient, and emergency department visits using generalized log-linear models. From 75,395,334 individuals, we identified 106,225 with MS. The majority were women (76.6%) aged 36-55 years (59.0%). Anomalously warm weather was associated with increased risk for emergency department visits (risk ratio [RR] = 1.043, 95% CI: 1.025-1.063) and inpatient visits (RR = 1.032, 95% CI: 1.010-1.054). There was limited evidence of an association between anomalously warm weather and MS-related outpatient visits (RR = 1.010, 95% CI: 1.005-1.015). Estimates were similar for men and women, strongest among older individuals, and exhibited substantial variation by season, region, and climate zone. Limitations of the present study include the absence of key individual-level measures of socioeconomic position (i.e., race/ethnicity, occupational status, and housing quality) that may determine where individuals live-and therefore the extent of their exposure to anomalously warm weather-as well as their propensity to seek treatment for neurologic symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that as global temperatures rise, individuals with MS may represent a particularly susceptible subpopulation, a finding with implications for both healthcare providers and systems.