Abstract
OBJECTIVE: To examine the prognostic values of systemic immune-inflammation indices of hemodialysis (HD) vascular access failure and develop a prediction model for vascular access failure based on the most pertinent systemic immune-inflammation index. STUDY DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Patients undergoing autogenous HD vascular access surgeries or arteriovenous graft as a permanent hemodialysis access in a tertiary center in southwest China from January 2020 to June 2022. PREDICTORS: Systemic immune-inflammation indices, including NLR, dNLR, AAPR, SIRI, SII, PNI, PLR, and LIPI, and clinical variables. OUTCOMES: The outcome was defined as survival of the hemodialysis access, with both occluded and stenotic access being considered as instances of access failure. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Cox proportional hazard regression model. RESULTS: 2690 patients were included in the study population, of whom 658 experienced access failure during the follow-up period. The median duration of survival for HD vascular access was 18 months. The increased systemic immune-inflammation indices, including dNLR, NLR, SII, PNI, SIRI, PLR, and LIPI, are predictive of HD access failure, with SII demonstrating the strongest prognostic value. A simple SII-based prediction model for HD access failure was developed, achieving C-indexes of 0.6314 (95% CI: 0.6249 - 0.6589) and 0.6441 (95% CI: 0.6212 - 0.6670) for predicting 6- and 12-month access survival, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Systemic immune-inflammation indices are significantly and negatively associated with HD vascular access survival. A simple SII-based prediction model was developed and anticipates further improvement through larger study cohort and validation from diverse centers.