Abstract
INTRODUCTION: Following the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2020, care homes were disproportionately impacted by high mortality and morbidity of vulnerable elderly residents. Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and improved infection control measures together with vaccination campaigns have since improved outcomes of infection. We studied the utility of past infection status, recent vaccination and anti-S antibody titres as possible correlates of protection against a newly emergent Omicron variant infection. METHODS: Prospective longitudinal surveillance of nine sentinel London care homes from April 2020 onwards found that all experienced COVID-19 outbreaks due to Omicron (BA.1) during December 2021 and January 2022, despite extensive prior SARS-CoV-2 exposure and high COVID-19 vaccination rates, including booster vaccines (>70% residents, >40% staff). RESULTS: Detailed investigation showed that 46% (133/288) of Omicron BA.1 infections were SARS-CoV-2 reinfections. Two and three COVID-19 vaccine doses were protective against Omicron infection within 2-9 weeks of vaccination, though protection waned from 10 weeks post-vaccination. Prior infection provided additional protection in vaccinated individuals, approximately halving the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection. DISCUSSION: Anti-S antibody titre showed a dose-dependent protective effect but did not fully account for the protection provided by vaccination or past infection, indicating that other mechanisms of protection are also involved.