Abstract
BACKGROUND: Epilepsy is a chronic neurological disorder characterized by recurrent seizures that significantly impact patients' quality of life. Identifying predictors is crucial for early intervention. OBJECTIVE: Electroencephalography (EEG) microstates effectively describe the resting state activity of the human brain using multichannel EEG. This study aims to develop a comprehensive prediction model that integrates clinical features with EEG microstates to predict drug-refractory epilepsy (DRE). DESIGN: Retrospective study. METHODS: This study encompassed 226 patients with epilepsy treated at the epilepsy center of a tertiary hospital between October 2020 and May 2023. Patients were categorized into DRE and non-DRE groups. All patients were randomly divided into training and testing sets. Lasso regression combined with Stepglm [both] algorithms was used to screen independent risk factors for DRE. These risk factors were used to construct models to predict the DRE. Three models were constructed: a clinical feature model, an EEG microstate model, and a comprehensive prediction model (combining clinical-EEG microstates). A series of evaluation methods was used to validate the accuracy and reliability of the prediction models. Finally, these models were visualized for display. RESULTS: In the training and testing sets, the comprehensive prediction model achieved the highest area under the curve values, registering 0.99 and 0.969, respectively. It was significantly superior to other models in terms of the C-index, with scores of 0.990 and 0.969, respectively. Additionally, the model recorded the lowest Brier scores of 0.034 and 0.071, respectively, and the calibration curve demonstrated good consistency between the predicted probabilities and observed outcomes. Decision curve analysis revealed that the model provided significant clinical net benefit across the threshold range, underscoring its strong clinical applicability. We visualized the comprehensive prediction model by developing a nomogram and established a user-friendly website to enable easy application of this model (https://fydxh.shinyapps.io/CE_model_of_DRE/). CONCLUSION: A comprehensive prediction model for DRE was developed, showing excellent discrimination and calibration in both the training and testing sets. This model provided an intuitive approach for assessing the risk of developing DRE in patients with epilepsy.