Abstract
BACKGROUND: The relationship between the neutrophil-monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (NMLR) and adverse outcomes in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and type 2 diabetes remains unclear. This study explored the association between NMLR, adverse cardiovascular events, and CKD progression. METHODS: This single-center retrospective study included patients with CKD and type 2 diabetes between November 2016 and December 2023. Patients were divided into tertiles according to NMLR values. The primary outcome was major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), while the secondary outcome was CKD progression. Restricted cubic splines (RCS) were used to describe the association between elevated NMLR and the risk of adverse outcomes. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify risk factors contributing to poor prognosis. Nomograms were developed to predict event-free survival, with their performance validated using the area under the curve (AUC). RESULTS: A total of 586 patients were included in this study. Over a median follow-up period of 23 months, at least one adverse event occurred in 225 patients (38.4%). The risk of MACEs, CKD progression, or both gradually increased across the NMLR tertiles (21.9% vs. 22.1% vs. 35.4%, p for trend = 0.001; 18.4% vs. 23.6% vs. 30.8%, p for trend = 0.004; and 31.6% vs. 35.9% vs. 47.7%, p for trend = 0.001, respectively). RCS showed an elevated risk of MACEs, CKD progression, or both with increasing NMLR (HR = 1.43, 95% CI [1.20, 1.70]; HR = 1.41, 95% CI [1.23, 1.61]; HR = 1.38, 95% CI [1.23, 1.55], respectively; all p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Increased NMLR was positively correlated with a higher risk of adverse cardiovascular events and CKD progression in patients with CKD and type 2 diabetes, and routine assessment of NMLR, particularly in those above 1.6, may aid in effective risk stratification and early intervention.