Abstract
OBJECTIVES: We draw from the Health Technology Assessment (HTA) literature to propose how hospitals and local health networks can prepare the key components of early economic evaluations to support the development and management of health service interventions. METHODS: Using the case example of a proposed intervention for older people in the Emergency Department (ED), a conceptual logic model of a new health service intervention is articulated to inform the structuring and population of a decision-analytic model using observed data on the existing care comparator and structured elicitation exercise of initial stakeholder expectations of intervention effects. RESULTS: The elicited patient pathway probabilities and lengths of stay quantities profile which of the existing types of patients are expected to avoid the ED and how this impacts the lengths of stay across the system. The exercise also quantifies the stakeholders' uncertainty and disagreement, with qualitative insights into why. The elicitation exercise participants draw upon the rationale for how the intervention is expected to affect a change within the local context, as captured within the logic model, together with the descriptive analyses of the characteristics and utilization of their target population. Feedback indicates the methods are acceptably robust yet pragmatic enough for healthcare delivery settings. CONCLUSIONS: As proposed in this paper, HTA methods can be used to capture how key stakeholders initially expect a service intervention to affect a change within their local context. The example results can be used in a decision-analytic model to guide the development and management of an intervention.