Abstract
BACKGROUND: The high price of HPV vaccines remains a significant barrier to vaccine accessibility in China, hindering the country's efforts toward cervical cancer elimination and exacerbating health inequity. We aimed to inform HPV vaccine price negotiations by identifying threshold prices that ensure that a government-funded HPV vaccination programme is cost-effective or cost-saving. METHODS: We used a previously validated transmission model to estimate the health and economic impact of HPV vaccination over a 100-year time horizon from a healthcare payer perspective. Threshold analysis was conducted considering different settings (national, rural, and urban), cervical cancer screening scenarios (cytology-based or HPV DNA-based, with different paces of scale-up), vaccine types (four types available in China), vaccine schedules (two-dose or one-dose), mode of vaccination (routine vaccination with or without later switching to high-valency vaccines), willingness-to-pay thresholds, and decision-making criteria (cost-effective or cost-saving). Furthermore, we examined the budget impact of introducing nationwide vaccination at the identified threshold prices. FINDINGS: Using the current market price, national routine HPV vaccination with any currently available vaccine is unlikely cost-effective. Under a two-dose schedule, the prices of the four available HPV vaccine types cannot exceed $26-$36 per dose (44.1%-80.2% reduction from current market prices) depending on vaccine type to ensure the cost-effectiveness of the national programme. Adopting vaccination at threshold prices would require an annual increase of 72.18%-96.95% of the total annual National Immunization Programme (NIP) budget in China. A cost-saving routine vaccination programme requires vaccine prices of $5-$10 per dose (depending on vaccine type), producing a 21.38%-34.23% increase in the annual NIP budget. Adding the second dose is unlikely to be cost-effective compared to a one-dose schedule, with the threshold price approaching or even falling below zero. Rural pilot vaccination programmes require lower threshold prices compared with a national programme. INTERPRETATION: Our study could inform vaccine price negotiation and thus facilitate nationwide scale-up of current HPV vaccination pilot programmes in China. The evidence may potentially be valuable to other countries facing HPV introduction barriers due to high costs. This approach may also be adapted for other contexts that involve the introduction of a pricy vaccine. FUNDING: CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Sciences (CIFMS); Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.