Abstract
Surveillance of stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC) after curative-intent metastasectomy can be effective for detecting asymptomatic recurrence. Guidelines for various forms of surveillance exist but are supported by limited evidence. We aimed to determine the most cost-effective strategy for surveillance following curative-intent metastasectomy of stage IV CRC. We performed a decision analysis to compare four active surveillance strategies involving clinic visits and investigations elicited from National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) recommendations. Markov model inputs included data from a population-based cohort and literature-derived costs, utilities, and probabilities. The primary outcomes were costs (2021 Canadian dollars) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained. Over a 10-year base-case time horizon, surveillance with follow-ups every 12 months for 5 years was most economically favourable at a willingness-to-pay threshold of CAD 50,000 per QALY. These patterns were generally robust in the sensitivity analysis. A more intensive surveillance strategy was only favourable with a much higher willingness-to-pay threshold of approximately CAD 425,000 per QALY, with follow-ups every 3 months for 2 years then every 12 months for 3 additional years. Our findings are consistent with NCCN guidelines and justify the need for additional research to determine the impact of surveillance on CRC outcomes.