Abstract
OBJECTIVES: Many countries introduced rubella-containing vaccination (RCV) after 2011, following changes in recommended World Health Organization (WHO) vaccination strategies and external support. We evaluated the impact of these introductions. METHODS: We estimated the country-specific, region-specific, and global Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) incidence during 1996-2019 using mathematical modeling, including routine and campaign vaccination coverage and seroprevalence data. RESULTS: In 2019, WHO African and Eastern Mediterranean regions had the highest estimated CRS incidence (64 [95% confidence intervals (CI): 24-123] and 27 [95% CI: 4-67] per 100,000 live births respectively), where nearly half of births occur in countries that have introduced RCV. Other regions, where >95% of births occurred in countries that had introduced RCV, had a low estimated CRS incidence (<1 [95% CI: <1 to 8] and <1 [95% CI: <1 to 12] per 100,000 live births in South-East Asia [SEAR] and the Western Pacific [WPR] respectively, and similarly in Europe and the Americas). The estimated number of CRS births globally declined by approximately two-thirds during 2010-2019, from 100,000 (95% CI: 54,000-166,000) to 32,000 (95% CI: 13,000-60,000), representing a 73% reduction since 1996, largely following RCV introductions in WPR and SEAR, where the greatest reductions occurred. CONCLUSIONS: Further reductions can occur by introducing RCV in remaining countries and maintaining high RCV coverage.