Abstract
Human herpesvirus-8 (HHV-8) is a gamma herpesvirus linked to the development of Kaposi sarcoma (KS). KS is more common in persons living with HIV (PLWH), but endemic KS in HIV-negative individuals is also common in sub-Saharan Africa. HHV-8 shedding occurs in the oral mucosa and is likely responsible for transmission. The mechanistic drivers of different HHV-8 shedding patterns in infected individuals are unknown. We applied stochastic mathematical models to a longitudinal study of HHV-8 oral shedding in 295 individuals in Uganda who were monitored daily with oral swabs. Participants were divided into four groups based on whether they were HIV-negative or positive as well as KS-negative or positive. In all groups, we observed a wide variance of shedding patterns, including no shedding, episodic low viral load shedding, and persistent high viral load shedding. Our model closely replicates patterns in individual data and attributes higher shedding rates to increased rates of viral reactivation, and lower median viral load values to more rapid and effective engagement of cytolytic immune responses. Our model provides a framework for understanding different shedding patterns observed in individuals with HHV-8 infection.