Joint time-to-event partial order continual reassessment method and Joint time-to-event Bayesian logistic regression model: Statistical designs for dual agent phase I/II dose finding studies with late-onset toxicity and activity outcomes

联合生存时间偏序连续再评估法和联合生存时间贝叶斯逻辑回归模型:用于评估迟发性毒性和活性结局的双药I/II期剂量探索研究的统计设计

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Abstract

Dual agent dose-finding trials study the effect of a combination of more than one agent, where the objective is to find the Maximum Tolerated Dose Combination, the combination of doses of the two agents that is associated with a pre-specified risk of being unsafe. In a Phase I/II setting, the objective is to find a dose combination that is both safe and active, the Optimal Biological Dose, that optimises a criterion based on both safety and activity. Since Oncology treatments are typically given over multiple cycles, both the safety and activity outcome can be considered as late-onset, potentially occurring in the later cycles of treatment. This work proposes two model-based designs for dual-agent dose finding studies with late-onset activity and late-onset toxicity outcomes, the Joint time-to-event (TITE) partial order continual reassessment method and the Joint TITE Bayesian logistic regression model. Their performance is compared alongside a model-assisted comparator in a comprehensive simulation study motivated by a real trial example, with an extension to consider alternative sized dosing grids. It is found that both model-based methods outperform the model-assisted design. Whilst on average the two model-based designs are comparable, this comparability is not consistent across scenarios.

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