Abstract
BACKGROUND: Immunotherapy has been the first-line treatment option in advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma(HCC); but now, there are no established molecular markers that can predict immunotherapy response. Estrogen has a crucial role in the development of a variety of liver illnesses, including liver fibrosis, Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and HCC. Nonetheless, the significance of estrogen-related genes in HCC immunotherapy and the underlying molecular mechanisms are not yet fully understood. METHOD: In this study, we constructed a novel estrogen-related gene prognostic signature (ERGPS) by analyzing bulk RNA sequencing data from 365 HCC patients. Based on the median risk score, we divided 365 HCC patients into low- and high-risk groups. Tumor mutation burden (TMB), Microsatellite instability (MSI), T cell receptor (TCR) richness, B cell receptor (BCR) richness, single-nucleotide variants (SNV) Neoantigens, Cancer Testicular Antigens (CTA) scores, and Tumour Immune Dysfunction and Exclusion (TIDE) scores were used to evaluate the magnitude of immunotherapy response. Multiple external datasets validate the validity and robustness of the prognostic signature. Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qRT-PCR) was used to validate estrogen-related gene overexpression in HCC tissue samples. RESULTS: ERGPS is an independent risk factor affecting the prognosis of HCC patients and is superior to other clinical variables in predicting patient survival and immunotherapy response. Multiple independent external datasets confirmed the superior predictive efficacy of the prognostic signature. The prognostic signature was positively correlated with TMB score, MSI score, TCR richness, BCR richness, SNV Neoantigens score, CTA score, expression levels of immune checkpoint-related genes, and TIDE score. Patients with HCC in the high-risk group identified by the prognostic signature were likely to be more responsive to immunotherapy and more suitable for immunotherapy. qRT-PCR confirmed that estrogen-related genes of the construct signature were highly expressed in HCC tumor tissues. CONCLUSION: Estrogen-related genes are overexpressed in HCC tissues. Our novel prognostic signature can accurately predict not only the prognosis but also the immunotherapy response of HCC patients. In the future, prognostic signatures will be a useful tool for clinicians to screen patients with HCC who are suitable for immunotherapy.