Abstract
BACKGROUND: Immunotherapy yields survival benefit for some advanced stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Because highly predictive biomarkers of immunotherapy response are an unmet clinical need, we used pretreatment radiomics and clinical data to train and validate a parsimonious model associated with survival outcomes among NSCLC patients treated with immunotherapy. METHODS: Three cohorts of NSCLC patients treated with immunotherapy were analyzed: training (n = 180), validation 1 (n = 90), and validation 2 (n = 62). The most informative clinical and radiomic features were subjected to decision tree analysis, which stratified patients into risk groups of low, moderate, high, and very high risk of death after initiation of immunotherapy. All statistical tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: The very high-risk group was associated with extremely poor overall survival (OS) in validation cohorts 1 (hazard ratio [HR] = 5.35, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.14 to 13.36; 1-year OS = 11.1%, 95% CI = 1.9% to 29.8%; 3-year OS = 0%) and 2 (HR = 13.81, 95% CI = 2.58 to 73.93; 1-year OS = 47.6%, 95% CI = 18.2% to 72.4%; 3-year OS = 0%) when compared with the low-risk group (HR = 1.00) in validation cohorts 1 (1-year OS = 85.0%, 95% CI = 60.4% to 94.9%; 3-year OS = 38.9%, 95% CI = 17.1% to 60.3%) and 2 (1-year OS = 80.2%, 95% CI = 40.3% to 94.8%; 3-year OS = 40.1%, 95% CI = 1.3% to 83.5%). The most informative radiomic feature, gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) inverse difference, was positively associated with hypoxia-related carbonic anhydrase 9 using gene-expression profiling and immunohistochemistry. CONCLUSION: Utilizing standard-of-care imaging and clinical data, we identified and validated a novel parsimonious model associated with survival outcomes among NSCLC patients treated with immunotherapy. Based on this model, clinicians can identify patients who are unlikely to respond to immunotherapy.