Abstract
BACKGROUND: The effect of the increasing lifetime burden of non-major cardiovascular conditions on risk for a subsequent major adverse cardiovascular event among survivors of childhood cancer has not been assessed. We aimed to characterise the prevalence of major adverse cardiovascular events and their association with the cumulative burden of non-major adverse cardiovascular events in childhood cancer survivors. METHODS: This is a longitudinal cohort study with participant data obtained from an ongoing cohort study at St Jude Children's Research Hospital: the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (SJLIFE). Prospective clinical follow-up was of 5-year survivors of childhood cancer who were diagnosed when aged younger than 25 years from 1962 to 2012. Age-frequency, sex-frequency, and race-frequency matched community-control participants completed a similar one-time clinical assessment. 22 cardiovascular events were graded using a St Jude Children's Research Hospital-modified version of the National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (version 4.03). Cumulative incidence and burden of the primary outcome of major adverse cardiovascular events (cardiomyopathy, myocardial infarction, stroke, and other cardiovascular-related mortality) were estimated. Rate ratios (RR) of the association of major adverse cardiovascular events with 22 non-major adverse cardiovascular events were estimated using multivariable piecewise-exponential regression adjusting for attained age, age at diagnosis, sex, race and ethnicity, treatment era, diagnosis of diabetes, and exposure to cardiotoxic cancer therapies. The St Jude Lifetime Cohort study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT00760656, and is ongoing. FINDINGS: 9602 5-year survivors of childhood cancer, and 737 community controls were included in the longitudinal follow-up (from Sept 13, 2007, to Dec 17, 2021). The median follow-up was 20·3 years (IQR 12·0-31·4) from the date of primary cancer diagnosis (4311 [44.9%] were females). By the age of 50 years (analysis stopped at age 50 years due to the low number of participants older than that age), the cumulative incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events among survivors was 17·7% (95% CI 15·9-19·5) compared with 0·9% (0·0-2·1) in the community controls. The cumulative burden of major adverse cardiovascular events in survivors was 0·26 (95% CI 0·23-0·29) events per survivor compared with 0·009 (0·000-0·021) events per community control participant. Increasing cumulative burden of grade 1-4 non-major adverse cardiovascular events was associated with an increased future risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (one condition: RR 4·3, 95% CI 3·1-6·0; p<0·0001; two conditions: 6·6, 4·6-9·5; p<0·0001; and three conditions: 7·7, 5·1-11·4; p<0·0001). Increased risk for major adverse cardiovascular events was observed with specific subclinical conditions (eg, grade 1 arrhythmias [RR 1·5, 95% CI 1·2-2·0; p=0·0017]), grade 2 left ventricular systolic dysfunction (2·2, 1·6-3·1; p<0·0001), grade 2 valvular disorders (2·2, 1·2-4·0; p=0·013), but not grade 1 hypercholesterolaemia, grade 1-2 hypertriglyceridaemia, or grade 1-2 vascular stenosis. INTERPRETATION: Among an ageing cohort of survivors of childhood cancer, the accumulation of non-major adverse cardiovascular events, including subclinical conditions, increased the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events and should be the focus of interventions for early detection and prevention of major adverse cardiovascular events. FUNDING: The US National Cancer Institute and the American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities.