Abstract
Short-term disability progression was predicted from a baseline evaluation in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) using their three-dimensional T1-weighted (3DT1) magnetic resonance images (MRI). One-hundred-and-eighty-one subjects diagnosed with MS underwent 3T-MRI and were followed up for two to six years at two sites, with disability progression defined according to the expanded-disability-status-scale (EDSS) increment at the follow-up. The patients’ 3DT1 images were bias-corrected, brain-extracted, registered onto MNI space, and divided into slices along coronal, sagittal, and axial projections. Deep learning image classification models were applied on slices and devised as ResNet50 fine-tuned adaptations at first on a large independent dataset and secondly on the study sample. The final classifiers’ performance was evaluated via the area under the curve (AUC) of the false versus true positive diagram. Each model was also tested against its null model, obtained by reshuffling patients’ labels in the training set. Informative areas were found by intersecting slices corresponding to models fulfilling the disability progression prediction criteria. At follow-up, 34% of patients had disability progression. Five coronal and five sagittal slices had one classifier surviving the AUC evaluation and null test and predicted disability progression (AUC > 0.72 and AUC > 0.81, respectively). Likewise, fifteen combinations of classifiers and axial slices predicted disability progression in patients (AUC > 0.69). Informative areas were the frontal areas, mainly within the grey matter. Briefly, 3DT1 images may give hints on disability progression in MS patients, exploiting the information hidden in the MRI of specific areas of the brain.