Abstract
BACKGROUND: Globally, lung carcinoma remains the leading cause of death, with its associated morbidity and mortality rates remaining elevated. Despite the slow advancement of treatment, the outlook remains bleak. Cellular senescence represents a halt in the cell cycle, encompassing a range of physiological and pathological activities, along with diverse phenotypic alterations, including variations in secretory phenotype, macromolecular harm, and metabolic disturbances. Research has revealed its vital function in the formation and growth of tumors. This study aimed to examine cellular senescence-related mRNAs linked to the outlook of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to formulate a predictive risk framework for NSCLC. METHODS: We acquired the NSCLC expression data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) to examine mRNAs linked to cellular senescence. Both single-variable and multiple-variable cox proportion risk assessments were utilized to determine the traits of cellular senescence-related mRNAs linked to NSCLC prognosis. Subsequently, the prognostic model for cellular senescence-related mRNAs was integrated with clinical-pathological characteristics to create a prognostic nomogram. Furthermore, the study delved into the risk-oriented predictive model, examining immune infiltration and responses to immunotherapy among both high and low-risk categories. RESULTS: Utilizing both univariate and multivariate Cox proportion risk assessments, a risk model comprising 12 mRNAs associated with cellular aging was ultimately developed: IGFBP1, TLR3, WT1, ID1, PTTG1, ERRFI1, HEPACAM, MAP2K3, RAD21, NANOG, PRKCD, SOX5. Univariate analysis and multivariate analysis illustrated that the risk score served as a standalone indicator for prognosis, and the hazard ratio (HR) of the risk score were 1.182 (1.139-1.226) (p < 0.001) and 1.162 (1.119 - 1.206) (p < 0.001), respectively. Individual prognoses were forecasted using nomogram, c-index, and principal component analysis (PCA). Furthermore, the risk-oriented model revealed notable statistical variances in immune infiltration and response to immunotherapy among the high and low risk categories. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that mRNAs related to cell senescence associated with prognosis are reliable predictors of NSCLC immunotherapy reaction and prognosis.