Abstract
This study aimed to provide effective methods for the identification of surgeries with high cancellation risk based on machine learning models and analyze the key factors that affect the identification performance. The data covered the period from January 1, 2013, to December 31, 2014, at West China Hospital in China, which focus on elective urologic surgeries. All surgeries were scheduled one day in advance, and all cancellations were of institutional resource- and capacity-related types. Feature selection strategies, machine learning models, and sampling methods are the most discussed topic in general machine learning researches and have a direct impact on the performance of machine learning models. Hence, they were considered to systematically generate complete schemes in machine learning-based identification of surgery cancellations. The results proved the feasibility and robustness of identifying surgeries with high cancellation risk, with the considerable maximum of area under the curve (AUC) (0.7199) for random forest model with original sampling using backward selection strategy. In addition, one-side Delong test and sum of square error analysis were conducted to measure the effects of feature selection strategy, machine learning model, and sampling method on the identification of surgeries with high cancellation risk, and the selection of machine learning model was identified as the key factors that affect the identification of surgeries with high cancellation risk. This study offers methodology and insights for identifying the key experimental factors for identifying surgery cancellations, and it is helpful to further research on machine learning-based identification of surgeries with high cancellation risk.