Abstract
To quantitatively evaluate and diagnose the carrying capacity of regional water resources under uncertain conditions, an index system and corresponding grade criteria were constructed from the perspective of carrying subsystem. Meanwhile, an improved entropy weight method was used to determine the objective weight of the index. Then, an evaluation model was built by applying set pair analysis, and a set pair potential based on subtraction was proposed to identify the carrying vulnerability factors. Finally, an empirical study was carried out in Anhui Province. The results showed that the consistency among objective weights of each index was considered, and the uncertainty between the index and grade criterion was reasonably dealt with. Furthermore, although the carrying situation in Anhui was severe, the development tended to be improved. The status in Southern Anhui was superior to that in the middle area, and that in the northern part was relatively grim. In addition, for Northern Anhui, the fewer water resources chiefly caused its long-term overloaded status. The improvement of capacity in the middle area was mainly hindered by its deficient ecological water consumption and limited water-saving irrigation area. Moreover, the long-term loadable condition in the southern part was due largely to its relatively abundant water resources and small population size. This evaluation and diagnosis method can be widely applied to carrying issues in other resources and environment fields.