Abstract
Standardized suicide mortality rates per 100,000 population (SMRs) in Japan consistently decreased from 2009-2019, but these decreasing trends were reversed to increase in 2020. To clarify the mechanisms of recent increasing suicide in Japan, temporal fluctuations of SMRs disaggregated by sex and employment status (employed and unemployed individuals) and labor indices such as working hours, wages, and regular employment opportunity index (REO) from January 2012 to June 2023 were analyzed using interrupted time-series analysis. Additionally, temporal causalities from labor indices to SMRs were analyzed using vector autoregressive and non-linear auto-regressive distributed lag analyses. Decreasing trends among employed SMRs of both sexes were attenuated after the enactment of the "Work Style Reform Program" in 2018, but male SMRs were unaffected by the COVID-19 pandemic. However, female employed SMRs sharply increased, synchronized with the "Work Style Reform Act" and the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak (the COVID-19 impact was greater than the "Work Style Reform Act"). Additionally, unemployed SMRs of both sexes sharply increased with the revision and scale-down of countermeasures against economic deterioration caused by COVID-19 ("revision of economic supportive countermeasures against economic deterioration caused by COVID-19"). Unexpectedly, after enacting the "Work Style Reform Act", wages decreased due to possibly decreasing working hours. Increasing REO, which consistently increased, was a protective factor for male suicides, but unemployed SMRs were not affected by any labor indices. It has been established that controlling a heavy workload plays an important role in suppressing the deterioration of physical and mental conditions, including suicide; however, this study suggested that, at least within appropriate ranges of working hours, decreasing working hours due to excessive management probably contributes to increasing suicides of some vulnerable individuals via de-creasing their wages. Although governmental welfare and economic support measures had to be revised according to rapidly changing situations during the COVID-19 pandemic, this study also suggested that temporal gaps among a part of revisions of several welfare and economic support measures were unexpectedly involved in drastically/sharply increasing suicides of unemployed individuals in 2022.