Abstract
BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: Currently, there are no effective tools to accurately assess acute biliary pancreatitis (ABP) risk in patients with gallstones. This study aimed to develop an ABP risk nomogram in patients with symptomatic gallstones. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective nested case-control study and data on 816 conservatively treated patients with symptomatic gallstones admitted to The First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University between January 6, 2007 and January 22, 2016 were retrospectively collected. We conducted a propensity-score matched (PSM) analysis based on follow-up time in a ratio of 1:4 between ABP group (n=65) and non-ABP group (n=260). These matched patients were randomly divided into study cohort (n=229) and validation cohort (n=96) according to a ratio of 7:3. In the study cohort, independent risk factors for ABP occurrence identified using Cox regression were included in nomogram. Nomogram performance and discrimination were assessed using the concordance index (C-index), area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC). The model was also validated in the validation cohort. RESULTS: Nomogram was based on 7 independent risk factors: age, diabetes history, gallbladder wall thickness, gallstone diameter, coexisting common bile duct (CBD) stones, direct bilirubin (DBIL), and white blood cell count (WBC). The C-index of nomogram was 0.888, and the 10-year AUCs of nomogram was 0.955. In the validation cohort, nomogram still had good discrimination (C-index, 0.857; 10-year AUC, 0.814). The calibration curve showed good homogeneity between the prediction by nomogram and the actual observation. DCA and CIC demonstrated that nomogram was clinically useful. CONCLUSIONS: The ABP risk nomogram incorporating 7 features is useful to predict ABP risk in symptomatic gallstone patients.