Abstract
BACKGROUND: Post-operative pancreatic fistula (POPF) formation occurs frequently after a pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Recently, a 10-point Fistula Risk Score (FRS) evaluating the likelihood of clinically relevant POPF (CR-POPF) development has been described and validated. This scheme has yet to be evaluated in PD patients managed without intra-operative drain placement. METHODS: Among patients undergoing PD at an academic centre since 2003, a retrospective analysis calculating FRS and its correlation with CR-POPF development was evaluated by logistic regression. Secondary analysis examined presentation and management of CR-POPF in undrained PD patients. RESULTS: FRS was calculated for 265 patients; 97.7% were managed without operative drains. The overall incidence of CR-POPF was 7.9%. Logistic regression revealed a 1.6-fold increase in CR-POPF risk per 1-point increase in FRS [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.2-2.0]. The negative predictive value in patients with FRS <3 was 100%, whereas the positive predictive value of FRS >6 was 16.7%. The median time to CR-POPF diagnosis was 18 days [interquartile range (IQR) 13-23]; 70.0% required readmission and 10.0% required a laparotomy. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients without operative drainage, CR-POPF often has delayed presentations but most are managed non-operatively. The predictive value of high-risk FRS appears limited; conversely, a low-risk FRS accurately predicts the absence of CR-POPF and seems an appropriate metric for guiding care.