Abstract
BACKGROUND: Home noninvasive positive pressure ventilation (NPPV) can be considered not only as an evidence-based treatment for stable hypercapnic chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients, but also as a predictor for detecting severe acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). METHODS: In this retrospective observational study, we collected clinical exacerbations information and daily NPPV-related data in a cohort of COPD patients with home NPPV for 6 months. Daily changes in NPPV-related parameters' variability prior to AECOPD were examined using two-way repeated measures ANOVA and individual abnormal values (>75th or <25th percentile of individual baseline parameters) were calculated during 7-day pre-AECOPD period. Multivariate logistic regression was used to identify the independent risk factors associated with AECOPD that then were incorporated into the nomogram. RESULTS: Between January 1, 2018, and January 1, 2020, a total of 102 patients were included and 31 (30.4%) participants experienced hospitalization (AECOPD group) within 6 months. Respiratory rate changed significantly from baseline at 1, 2 or 3 days prior to admission (p<0.001, respectively) in the AECOPD group. The number of days with abnormal values of daily usage, leaks, or tidal volume during the 7-day pre-AECOPD period in the AECOPD group was higher than in the stable group (p<0.001, respectively). On multivariate analysis, 7-day mean respiratory rate (OR 1.756, 95% CI 1.249-2.469), abnormal values of daily use (OR 1.918, 95% CI 1.253-2.934) and tidal volume (OR 2.081, 95% CI 1.380-3.140) within 7 days were independently associated with the risk of AECOPD. Incorporating these factors, the nomogram achieved good concordance indexes of 0.962. CONCLUSION: Seven-day mean respiratory rate, abnormal values of daily usage, leaks, and tidal volume within the 7-day pre-AECOPD period may be biomarkers for detection of AECOPD.