Abstract
Reducing the cost of hydrogen fuel cell technology is crucial in propelling the hydrogen economy and achieving decarbonized energy systems. This study identifies the hydrogen fuel cell cost trajectory through a multi-stage learning curve model, highlighting technology learning mechanisms across different stages. Findings show that innovation and production contribute to cost reduction, and the learning by researching holds a more significant role presently, while the learning by doing takes precedence in the long term, achieving a 14% learning rate. The cost predictions imply that the system cost of hydrogen fuel cell is expected to fall below 1,000 yuan/kW after 2031. Moreover, the scenario analyses highlight the conducive role of various hydrogen production technologies and the evolution of cost influencing factors on cost reduction. Our research provides critical insights into the evolving dynamics of technological learning and cost trajectory in the hydrogen fuel cell industry, with significant implications for policy-making.