Abstract
To rule out coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in patients scheduled to undergo emergency medical procedures, SARS-CoV-2 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) must be performed. In developing countries, the use of SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR has been limited by its unavailability and long processing time. Hence, a quick screening score to predict COVID-19 may help healthcare practitioners determine which patients without acute respiratory symptoms can safely undergo an emergency medical procedure. We conducted a cross-sectional study of adult patients without acute respiratory symptoms who were admitted to the emergency department and underwent an emergency medical procedure within 24 hours after admittance. We collected baseline demographic data, COVID-19 screening variables, and SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR as the gold standard for COVID-19 diagnosis. Bivariate and multivariate analyses were performed, and a scoring system was developed using statistically significant variables from the multivariate analysis. With data from 357 patients, multivariate backward stepwise logistic regression analysis resulted in two significant COVID-19 predictors: the presence of SARS-CoV-2-IgM antibody (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 7.02 [95% CI: 1.49-32.96]) and typical chest x-ray (aOR: 23.21 [95% CI: 10.01-53.78]). A scoring system was developed using these predictors with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.64-0.78). For a cutoff point of ≥ 2, the scoring system showed 42.5% sensitivity and 97.1% specificity but had poor calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test P value < 0.001). We believe that the development of this COVID-19 quick screening score may be helpful in a resource-limited clinical setting, but its moderate discrimination and poor calibration hinder its use as a replacement for the SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR test for COVID-19 screening.